Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 4.801241 5.639606 6.566324 7.664616 8.928571 10.335377 12.017536
2025-08-10 3.287373 4.348971 5.651463 7.357704 9.523490 12.169502 15.634373
2025-08-17 2.338599 3.429680 4.893587 6.980277 9.853083 13.639890 18.974064
2025-08-24 1.799155 2.885783 4.460369 6.871590 10.424506 15.410680 22.864895
2025-08-31 1.432613 2.489869 4.130303 6.805408 10.986145 17.176983 26.911217
2025-09-07 1.233294 2.300369 4.057923 7.084085 12.057550 19.764657 32.407428
2025-09-14 1.036555 2.067995 3.865543 7.122164 12.730131 21.791316 37.241355
2025-09-21 0.878879 1.868551 3.687154 7.141601 13.351726 23.776636 42.187293
2025-09-28 0.751104 1.696730 3.523819 7.152126 13.941483 25.748552 47.284058
2025-10-05 0.717391 1.704973 3.694486 7.793070 15.718566 29.903828 56.462562
2025-10-12 0.646448 1.619594 3.666435 8.044963 16.800104 32.933942 63.948150
2025-10-19 0.589109 1.552047 3.661914 8.338133 17.985941 36.253414 72.236772
2025-10-26 0.512651 1.427046 3.521677 8.345458 18.638042 38.698816 79.253172
2025-11-02 0.426668 1.259672 3.260142 8.056951 18.658670 39.953965 84.176238
2025-11-09 0.348869 1.094033 2.971712 7.661681 18.399957 40.627548 88.033235
2025-11-16 0.299400 0.992543 2.817690 7.548620 18.731387 42.511381 94.449716
2025-11-23 0.259534 0.908233 2.690639 7.478388 19.145211 44.598051 101.456326
2025-11-30 0.241049 0.883611 2.714397 7.782824 20.454361 48.699028 112.991907
2025-12-07 0.214482 0.826622 2.639995 7.824579 21.144118 51.514393 122.028635
2025-12-14 0.190619 0.772169 2.562518 7.845854 21.784813 54.276458 131.178045
2025-12-21 0.169482 0.721323 2.485922 7.857357 22.400990 57.036142 140.547461
2025-12-28 0.169747 0.748098 2.647415 8.555654 24.843915 64.214093 160.368603
2026-01-04 0.158240 0.727782 2.659846 8.829970 26.214649 68.992309 175.090398